home ................Breeders Cup Blog- 2011

Handicapping the Breeders Cup

Editorial......

Breeders Cup Picks

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The preps have been run...now it's keep em healthy..keep em sharp and let the stampede procede. It is very likely this year's run for the roses will be another full field of 20 3 year old horses-so forget about the form and the results leading up to the most exciting 2 minutes in sports...what everyone needs now (both horse and human) is a little luck..and a lot of room.

Because, when 20 horses are running around a mile and a half oval- it resembles more of the bumper cars at Atlantic City then the world's most prestigious thoroughbred horse race, with that said lets take a closer look at the top contenders for the 2011 Breeders Cup--- from the top handicapper of the Breeders Cup, Me!

But before we do I must respectfully implore everyone to put a little faith in the best handicapper in North America to provide us all with a REAL economic stimulus package...and REAL insider trading tips in the stock market ....- the poor man's stock market - that is.

When you sign up for my Breeders Cup picks you get the Breeders Cup as seen through the eyes of the guy who has had...

Gotham Stakes exacta ($40)

Louisiana Derby exacta & triple ($400)-

Florida Derby exacta and triple

Illinois Derby exacta

Churchill Downs Derby exacta

Arkansas Derby exacta . . . .and of course many of them win bets too.....

and a lot more winners in races both big and small throughout this spring's racing season.

And it was all capped off by my -Papa Clem/Old fashioned - exacta in the Arkansas Derby ($26 ex)..that we had numerous times...in fact...I had to buy another mattress to keep all the tickets.

It has been a phenomanol prep series for me this year...but as those who have stuck with me over the years realize...it's pretty much business as usual when it comes to the big races...one of which a non- 3 year old race....Churchill Downs handicap..netted us a $225 exacta in a half million dollar race- not to mention the 92-1 in the Stephen Foster Handicap (3/4 million dollar race) a few years ago...

I know I am bragging ...and I certainly don't intend to appear to be overly elitist..(and of course I don't win every race) .but I must call them as I see them...so that in my quest to prove that yes indeed "I Got It" my ultimate gratification and reward is actualized when I hear us all say that "We Got It!"...again...and baby do we ever.....

My job is to sort through the minutia...so that we all can make a few bucks..so that we all can stop worrying about this financial such and such..and go on and enjoy the abundance of life that the great curator surley insists us all to avail ourselves.

So ultimately our goal here is to make a few bucks...have a few laughs..and ratchet it up a few decibals on the ol' ego scale....

As apparent as it may seem ...I must reassure us all (present company included) that my wins are our wins.

To be sure without the support of our many club members, and confidants and fellow afficianados...the time and effort..and yes knowledge too...could not be possibly sought, implemented and achieved..without the most important member of our handicapping team...our Club Members...and it is the club member's desires that drive me to the zenith of artistic investigational puzzle solving and analytical/ abstractionation..(thank you very much) that satisfies the two main fruits of our labours.

Cash and Ego!

Those of you that have followed and stuck with me through the years, know that all is possible....

So let the new members also enjoy the profits of studious, meticulous..fantastical determinations...there is plenty to go around and a lot more where that came from.

And surely as those who have stuck with me realize that we are in fact a real handicapper that gives real picks on real horses with real names with real odds...

We are not some tout that offers one horse to one, one to another and few different ones to some others...

we always give the same horses to everyone..touts we are not...investors and fox like pragmatists are what buttresses our mattresses with tickets of egomania...but I digress ... let us address the main focus of our discussion at hand...

Winning the Breeders Cup..we have had a lot of big days on Derby day....and let the good times roll again in 2011...

In 2005 we did not have Giacomo..but we did.hit a $675 exacta in the very first race at Churchill Downs.and ended with 3 straight exactas at Belmont...$100, $144 and $1,000 (thousand) in the last 3 races.

Then we followed that up with a $150 exacta in the Preakness Stakes 2 weeks later!! (Afleet Alex over Scrappy T).

2011 Breeders Cup Picks

What you get-------

When you try our Breeders Cup tip sheet..you get...

#1 - everyone gets the same horses...no shell game..no jumble of numbers...

you get the horses we are playing, their names and numbers and how we are laying them,...for example..this year's Arkansas Derby

$10 win place show Papa Clem, $6 exacta box Papa Clem/ Old Fashioned...triples,exactas...pick 3s..best bets..etc...and more..

You also get the entire Churchill Downs card for Saturday May 2nd..laid out and how we are playing the races..you also get

Belmont Park-full card-

and feature selections for races from across North America...

Hollywood, Calder, Pimlico, Delaware, and more tracks..laid out and how to play them...

You also get- Free Friday picks (Kentucky Oaks Day) 30+ picks laid out and how to play them.

So that's 2 days of racing---80+ races....and the Breeders Cup.

And for those who enjoy Triple Crown memorabilia...sign up by Saturday 4/18 and receive a (free) a $2 uncashed Preakness win ticket on the 2011 Breeders Cup winner...the ticket has his name on it!

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2011 Breeders Cup Contenders

So what are we dealing with this year?

There are many in this year's field that have a legitimate shot at wearing the roses. The 2011th running of the Breeders Cup appears wide open and should prove to be a great wagering proposition. And all the more reason to have the services of our handicapping expertise to capitalize on this year's profit potential.

East coast versus West coast.

West Coast---------------------------

Papa Clem (Arkansas Derby winner) and, I Want Revenge (Gotham & Wood victor) have proved the mettle of the West Coast contingent...2 other top West Coast contenders, Chocolate Candy (Jenny Craig's horse trained by Northern California's top trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer) and Pioneer of the Nile- trained by Baffert---(say no more)..have yet to traverse the East's dirt tracks, the latter topping our exacta over Choco/ Candy in the Churchill Downs Derby. a late scratch in the SA Derby, the Pamplemousse also appears formidable.


East Coast---------------------------

Quality Road...Wow...what can you say..big speed figures big speed.


Louisiana/ Arkansas------------------

Fresian Fire and Old Fashioned have confirmed trainer Larry Jones as a top member of his profession. Winning big races and desevedly so...real possibilities to build upon Hard Spun's and the ill fated Filly Eight Belles successes.

But Old Fashioned's breakdown..has confirmed another of our astute observations..as we felt he never was a viable candidate for the Derby raoses..

Illinois-----------------------------

Musket Man

There are also a few other top contenders...stay tuned as we watch/analyze and strike when the iron is hot...

All of the afore mentioned runners own realistic claims as true Contenders for the 2011 Breeders Cup...but wait, there are more....

West Side Bernie, Stardom Bound, Beethoven, Giant Oak...possible wild cards

and the real wild card...Dunkirk . . .the highly touted runner from the hi-profile-Tabor/ Pletcher combo...hopes to get what may be an elusive slot in the starting gate.
In the event that more than 20 horses are entered to run Derby Day..preference is given to those horses with the most earnings in graded stakes races..which may leave Dunkirk outside looking in.

And it is quite possible another horse may prove ready to give it a go- there is the European seeking to make history on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

But when it comes down to the wire...there is one big question that cannot be answered until about 6:30 pm on that day of days...which horse wants to run further then any 3 year old has run to date..the mile and a quarter that is required to have some lucky owner's colors painted at the Twin Spires that has been the goal of a lifetime.


updated:-April 28-2011-2:12 pm
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i am so sick f these idiots building plastic tracks to save a horse..sure it (at present) reduces their breakdowns from 2 in 1,000 to 1.75 in a 1,000...if these (im sory) assholes are so woried about a horse running on dirt..than run the M effer on turf...you fricking maniacs...if society spent even a flys atention span that is spent on the safety of horses ..then why are 1,000s of young black men..and peple in general getting killed everyday? drugs..guns,,prisons..oh yea..you can't send a horse to prison...most horse peiple love these animals...and no slots?...idiots..you know its only the states that surround the no slots states that continue to keep slots out of _said(maryland)...but the real sick idea..is if you walk into any grocery store ..(its like Ceasars palace..its a frickin casino in evey grocery store..) and these morons..(i hope paid lobyists) say its bad for the community...jesus christ..the have a casino in every grocery store in town...(lottery..fake horse races..scratch offs..poker...keno..)..society has gone nuts..and there is some (body) puttin no slots signs all over baltimore...isn't that illegal..suppose i put up signs ( without permission all over the city requesting young fenale models...)...society has gone insane..or well..they already were ...but its getting worse...god hep us all...and P S run for the hills..the mob is (has) taken over...BS...thats o k...but god forbid a horse break down..you make me sick...what's next..I say we put the horses in water and let them swim..society has gone insane..FU..and I have had it..all bets are off..I am disgusted by the level of inteligennce (sic) that exists in racing ( and humanity today)..FU

Good Luck BC 25..

 

Idiots...

 

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2011 Breeders Cup Picks

Breeders Cup Contenders
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Top Breeders Cup Classic Contenders:

HORSE TRAINER OWNER
ACCLAMATION   D. WARREN P. HILVERS, E. & J. JOHNSTON & M. HILVERS
APART   A. STALL JR A. DILSCHNEIDER
AWAIT THE DAWN   A. O'BRIEN M. TABOR & MRS. J. MAGNIER
AWESOME GEM   C. DOLLASE WEST POINT THOROUGHBREDS
COIL B. BAFFERT M. PEGRAM, K. WATSON & P. WEITMAN
CROWN OF THORNS   R. MANDELLA   SPENDTHRIFT FARM LLC
DIALED IN N. ZITO R. LAPENTA
DUKE OF MISCHIEF D. FAWKES A. & J. LIEBLONG ET AL
FLAT OUT C. DICKEY PRESTON STABLES LLC
GAME ON DUDE   B. BAFFERT   LANNI FAMILY TRUST, MERCEDES STABLE ET AL
GIANT OAK   C. BLOCK V. TARRA TRUST
HAVRE DE GRACE J. JONES FOX HILL FARMS INC
NEHRO  S. ASMUSSEN   ZAYAT STABLES LLC
PANTS ON FIRE  K. BREEN G. & L. HALL
RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE   K. MCLAUGHLIN   MILL HOUSE
RICHARD'S KID   S. SEEMAR ZABEEL RACING INTERNATIONAL CORP
RULER ON ICE   K. BREEN G. HALL & L. HALL
SHACKLEFORD D. ROMANS M. LAUFFER & W. CUBBAGE
STAY THIRSTY T. PLETCHER REPOLE STABLE
TIZWAY H. BOND W. CLIFTON JR
TO HONOR AND SERVE W. MOTT LIVE OAK PLANTATION
TWIRLING CANDY J. SADLER THE CRAIG FAMILY TRUST, W. FARISH & M. WYGOD
UNCLE MO T. PLETCHER REPOLE STABLE

Top Breeders Cup Contenders Juvenile

 


HORSE TRAINER OWNER
BIG BLUE NATION T. PLETCHER BORTOLAZZO STABLE & WIND RIVER STABLES
CREATIVE CAUSE   M. HARRINGTON   H. STEINMANN
CURRENCY SWAP T. POMPAY KLARAVICH STABLES, W. LAWRENCE
DRILL   B. BAFFERT K. WATSON, M. PEAGRAM & P. WEITMAN
EXFACTOR   B. FLINT STONEWAY FARM LLC
FIRE ON ICE   J. KIMMEL J. KIMMEL & E. GINDI
INDIAN EVENING J. CARROLL VINERY STABLES
JACK'S IN THE DECK   R. GRAHAM   SKEEDATTLE STABLE
MAJESTIC CITY P. MILLER J. BLOOM
OVERDRIVEN T. PLETCHER   REPOLE STABLE
RED DUKE   J. QUINN MAXILEAD LIMITED
SHARED PROPERTY  T. AMOSS J. NAMY
SHE DIGS ME   S. ASMUSSEN K. & J. ROBISON
STAT T. PLETCHER BORTOLAZZO STABLE
TAKE CHARGE INDY  P. BYRNE C. & M. SANFORD LLC & SECURE INVESTMENTS
TRINNIBERG  B. PARBOO S. PARBHOO
UNION RAGS   M. MATZ CHADDS FORD STABLE

 

 

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Who will win the Breeders Cup?
Richard B - last updated 11/02/11