Kentucky Derby 139 Blog
2013 Kentucky Derby Contenders: posted
Super Ninety Nine
Shakin It Up
Ive Struck A Nerve
So what are we dealing with this year?
There are many in this year's field that have a
legitimate shot at wearing the roses. The 138th running of the Kentucky
Derby appears wide open and should prove to be a great wagering
proposition. And all the more reason to have the services of our
handicapping expertise to capitalize on this year's profit potential.
East coast versus West coast.
Papa Clem (Arkansas Derby winner) and, I Want Revenge
(Gotham & Wood victor) have proved the mettle of the West Coast
contingent...2 other top West Coast contenders, Chocolate Candy
(Jenny Craig's horse trained by Northern California's top trainer,
Jerry Hollendorfer) and Pioneer of the Nile- trained by Baffert---(say
no more)..have yet to traverse the East's dirt tracks, the latter
topping our exacta over Choco/ Candy in the Santa Anita Derby. a
late scratch in the SA Derby, the Pamplemousse also appears formidable.
Quality Road...Wow...what can you say..big speed
figures big speed.
Fresian Fire and Old Fashioned have confirmed trainer
Larry Jones as a top member of his profession. Winning big races
and desevedly so...real possibilities to build upon Hard Spun's
and the ill fated Filly Eight Belles successes.
But Old Fashioned's breakdown..has confirmed another
of our astute observations..as we felt he never was a viable candidate
for the Derby raoses..
There are also a few other top contenders...stay
tuned as we watch/analyze and strike when the iron is hot...
All of the afore mentioned runners own realistic
claims as true Contenders for the 2013 Kentucky Derby...but wait,
there are more....
West Side Bernie, Stardom Bound, Beethoven, Giant
Oak...possible wild cards
and the real wild card...Dunkirk . . .the highly
touted runner from the hi-profile-Tabor/ Pletcher combo...hopes
to get what may be an elusive slot in the starting gate.
In the event that more than 20 horses are entered to run Derby Day..preference
is given to those horses with the most earnings in graded stakes
races..which may leave Dunkirk outside looking in.
And it is quite possible another horse may prove
ready to give it a go- there is the European seeking to make history
on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.
But when it comes down to the wire...there is one
big question that cannot be answered until about 6:30 pm on that
day of days...which horse wants to run further then any 3 year old
has run to date..the mile and a quarter that is required to have
some lucky owner's colors painted at the Twin Spires that has been
the goal of a lifetime.
About Dual Qualifiers: posted
I have gotten a lot of questions about dual qualifiers and want
to give everyone a basic outline of what they are talking about:
The Experimental Free Handicap,
published annually by The Jockey Club since 1935, is a weight-based
assessment of the previous year’s leading two-year-olds, with
the weights compiled for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles on
This year’s weighting committee gave War Pass, winner of the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the high weight assignment of 127
pounds on the 2007 Experimental Free Handicap. The 127 pounds assigned
to War Pass equals last year’s high weight, Street Sense,
which was the highest assignment for a colt since Favorite Trick
received 128 pounds on the 1997 Experimental Free Handicap. The
filly division is headed by undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies winner Indian Blessing at 123 pounds.
The committee weighted a total of 105 males and
99 fillies. Eligible for weighting were all two-year-olds of 2007
that finished among the top four in graded or other unrestricted
races with an added value of at least $75,000, run in the United
Some handicappers use the Experimental rankings in conjunction with
a horse's dosage index in determining which horses are "dual
qualifiers" for the Kentucky Derby. Horses ranked within
10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another
country and have a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less and a Center
of Distribution of 1.25 or less are considered the dual
These horses have statistically shown that they have a better chance
at winning the Derby.
Dosage index is a scientific classification of a horses pedigree,
speed and stamina -among other criteria.
Please keep in mind in recent years there has been some debate about
the Dual Qualifiers theory..and while the jury may still be out,
many of these horses do run well in at least one leg of the Triple
2008 Dual qualifiers are highlighted below with an asterisk
by their name.
For more information about a horse's dosage index
Last updated 2/14/13 2:00 pm EST